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        CaiWeiCi: 2013 machinery industry is expected to achieve double-digit growth

        Date:3/25/2013

          It is predicted that in 2013 machinery industry will continue to achieve double-digit growth. Although the machinery industry has entered a rapid growth phase, but also provide space industry transformation and upgrading. China Machinery Industry Federation executive vice president think CaiWeiCi, "medium speed" and the growth of better quality than the high-speed, but the loss of extensive growth is more valuable, more worth cherishing. The industry should be getting used to, and committed to achieving more concerned about the quality of growth medium speed growth.

          Specifically, in terms of the macroeconomic situation, the expected macroeconomic warming trend will continue in 2013, but the recovery will be more moderate, GDP will grow by about 8%, slightly higher than last year. Inflationary pressures began to ease, to create the conditions for the policy to increase flexibility. Expected 2013 price pressures will be picked up. Some experts believe that the 2013 CPI is likely to rebound by 2.7% in 2012 to 3.5%, but the risk of a sharp rise.

          See the demand environment, domestic demand will pick up slightly, but not expect rapid recovery.

          Expected consumption growth in 2013 is expected to remain stable; investment growth has been to pick up signs of the "4 trillion" as the stock market, but is not expected to reproduce. 2013 GDP growth will be slightly higher than last year, but is still low, so domestic demand growth in 2013 can not be overly optimistic. According to a sample survey of the machine together key enterprises, in 2012 the total order amount of 1 to 11 months year-on-year decline of 1.26%, is still at a very low level, highlights the demand for machinery products the situation is still in a depressed state.

          External demand aggregate demand will increase, but the growth will further slow down. First, in 2012 the export has shown a significantly decreased trend. Second, although some international comparative advantage of China's machinery industry, but exports continued to years of rapid development, has attracted increasing trade friction is a sharp increase in the difficulty of expanding exports, export growth expectations should be lowered. In addition, the recent exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar to resume its rally is bound to weaken China's export competitiveness. Counterparts in developed countries is not only struggling to expand the advantages of high-end equipment market, limit the development of our country; and actively extending to end, squeeze our traditional market, is bound to adversely affect the domestic-funded enterprises, the traditional domestic market. 2013 machinery industry demand situation is expected to be slightly better than last year, but still rather grim, must not be over-optimistic.

          Second, from the supply environment, the slow rise in procurement costs.

          September 2012 PPI inflation was -3.6%, its lowest level in 35 months, year-on-year growth of -2.8% in October year-on-year growth of -2.2% in November; indicating that the real economy is significantly colder, but the decline has continued to narrow, that the economy began to pick up. In this context, fuel, power, transportation and other purchase prices last year has been at a low level, procurement costs in 2013 is expected to recover slowly. It is noteworthy that despite the current international bulk goods prices at a low level, but loose monetary policy in the United States, Japan and other countries have been stimulated by upstream resource products prices are likely to rebound, increasing China's imported inflation risk.

          In summary, the forecast CaiWeiCi 2013 mechanical industrial demand situation will be better than last year, but can hardly be significantly improved; pressure of rising costs will continue to increase; On the other hand, macroeconomic policy is expected to continue to be more relaxed, industrial policy is expected to continue conducive to the machinery industry upgrade.

          Is expected the 2013 mechanical industrial economic operation speed will be slightly higher than in 2012, but overall is still at a low level throughout the year is still expected to continue to achieve double-digit growth. Among them: the production and sales growth is expected to be around 12%; profit growth is expected to be around 8%; export growth is expected to be around 8%.

        TypeInfo: Trade News

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