It is predicted that the machinery industry will still achieve double-digit growth in 2013.Although the machinery industry has entered a stage of medium-speed growth,it also provides room for industry transformation and upgrading.Cai Weici,executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation,believes that"medium-speed"and more quality growth is more valuable and worth cherishing than high-speed but extensive growth.The industry should gradually get used to and commit to achieving"medium-speed"growth that pays more attention to the quality of growth.

　　Specifically,in terms of the macro situation,it is expected that the macro economy will continue to pick up in 2013,but the rebound will be more moderate,and GDP will grow by about 8%,slightly higher than the previous year.Inflationary pressures began to ease,creating conditions for increased policy flexibility.It is expected that the pressure of rising prices will pick up in 2013.Some experts believe that the CPI in 2013 may rise from about 2.7%in 2012 to about 3.5%,but there is little risk of a sharp rise.

　　1.From the perspective of the demand environment,domestic demand will pick up slightly,but a rapid recovery cannot be expected.

　　It is expected that consumption growth in 2013 is expected to remain stable;investment growth has already begun to pick up,but it is not expected to reproduce the“4 trillion”market that year.Since the GDP growth rate in 2013 will be slightly higher than that of the previous year,it will still be low.Therefore,the domestic demand growth in 2013 cannot be overly optimistic.According to a sample survey of key contact enterprises by China Machinery Federation,the cumulative order value from January to November 2012 dropped by 1.26%year-on-year,which is still at a very low level,highlighting the current demand for machinery products is still in a rather sluggish state.

　　Total external demand will increase,but the increase will slow down further.First,exports in 2012 have shown a markedly weakening trend.Second,although my country's machinery industry has certain international comparative advantages,its exports have continued to develop at a high speed for many years,which has caused increasing trade frictions.The difficulty of expanding exports is increasing sharply.Therefore,the expectation of export growth should be lowered.In addition,the recent resumption of the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will inevitably weaken my country’s export competitiveness.Third,their counterparts in developed countries are not only striving to expand their advantages in the high-end equipment market and restricting my country’s development;they are also actively extending to mid-range products and squeezing out my country’s traditional market,which will definitely have an adverse impact on the traditional domestic market of domestic-funded enterprises.Although it is expected that the demand situation of the machinery industry in 2013 will be slightly better than that of the previous year,it is still relatively severe,and we must not be overly optimistic.

　　2.From the perspective of the supply environment,procurement costs are rising slowly.

　　In September 2012,the PPI increased by-3.6%year-on-year,a 35-month low.In October,it increased by-2.8%year-on-year,and in November it increased by-2.2%year-on-year.This indicates that although the real economy is significantly colder,the decline has continued to narrow.It shows that the economy has begun to pick up.In this context,the purchase prices of fuel,power,transportation,etc.have been at a relatively low level last year,and it is expected that procurement costs will slowly rise in 2013.It is worth noting that although the current international bulk material prices are at a low level,under the stimulus of the loose monetary policies of many countries such as the United States and Japan,the prices of upstream resource products may rebound,thereby increasing my country's imported inflation.risk.

　　In summary,Cai Weici predicts that the demand situation of the machinery industry in 2013 will be better than that of the previous year,but it is hard to say that it will improve significantly;the pressure of rising costs will continue to increase;on the other hand,macroeconomic policies are expected to continue to be looser,and industrial policies are expected to continue Conducive to the upgrading of the machinery industry.

　　It is expected that the economic operation speed of the machinery industry in 2013 will be slightly higher than that in 2012,but the overall rate is still at a low level,and it is still expected to continue to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year.Among them:production and sales growth is expected to be around 12%;profit growth is expected to be around 8%;export growth is expected to be around 8%.