Entering March,the winter jasmine has revealed its fragrance,but for the machinery industry that has entered the medium-speed growth channel,the spring is still cold.Although the relevant data on industry operations in the first two months are acceptable,the industry's prosperity is hard to overestimate.
At the recent Chamber of Commerce of the Expert Committee of the China Machinery Industry Federation,industry experts generally believed that the actual situation of the industry may seem more severe than the"number".It is worth noting that fixed asset investment in the machinery industry(hereinafter referred to as fixed investment)increased by 13%year-on-year,which was lower than the national and manufacturing growth for the first time.
In response to the historical reversal of fixed investment,Cai Weici,executive vice chairman of China Machine Federation,said"unexpected."He emphasized that accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the industry,increasing reform efforts,and activating mechanisms are the only options to deal with difficulties.
Solid investment has fallen sharply,the prosperity is hard to overestimate
At the meeting,the leaders of various industries generally believed that there was a certain gap between the actual operation of the industry and the statistical data.In particular,the person in charge of the Foundry Industry Association said that the statistical data was even"doubled."
Statistics show that from January to February this year,my country’s machinery industry has completed a total industrial output value of 2.65 trillion yuan,a year-on-year increase of 13.11%;completed sales output value of 2.58 trillion yuan,a year-on-year increase of 13.3%;cumulative growth rate of value added is 9%,a low It is 0.9%higher than petrochemicals and electric power,and ranks third from the bottom.
From the perspective of sub-industry,among the 14 industries(equipment repair industry added this year)as calculated by the China Machine Federation,except for the construction machinery industry output value which fell 12.59%year-on-year,the production and sales of the remaining 13 industries achieved year-on-year growth.Among them,agricultural machinery,instruments,general petrochemicals,machine tools,electrical appliances,basic machinery,automobiles,machinery and equipment repair industries maintained double-digit growth.
It is worth noting that,compared with the same period in 2012,the construction machinery industry fell by 20 percentage points year-on-year;while the internal combustion engine industry saw the largest year-on-year increase,which was 18 percentage points.
From the perspective of import and export data,the total import and export volume of the machinery industry in January was 52.828 billion US dollars,a year-on-year increase of 13.88%.Among them,exports were 30.199 billion U.S.dollars,a year-on-year increase of 11.12%;imports were 22.631 billion U.S.dollars,a year-on-year increase of 17.79%.The trade surplus was 7.566 billion US dollars.
Analyzing the characteristics of imports and exports,Zheng Guowei,the former director of the Import Office of the Ministry of Machinery Industry,said that from the perspective of imports,first,the number of imports of high-end machine tools is still very large,and the import of vertical machining centers has increased by more than 50%.Second,the import of small cars has dropped sharply,especially the import of high-end light off-road vehicles.In terms of exports,excavators increased significantly.China Machinery Federation believes that the import and export situation in January was better than expected,but the whole year is still not optimistic.
The sharp drop in solid investment became the biggest feature of the machinery industry in the first two months of operation.Among them,a total of 249.673 billion yuan of fixed investment was completed from January to February,a year-on-year increase of 13.31%,a sharp drop of 23.51 percentage points from the same period last year.
Zhao Xinmin,director of the Statistical Information Department of the China Machine Federation,said that for the first time,the fixed investment in the machinery industry has changed from“higher than the manufacturing industry and higher than the whole society,to lower than the manufacturing industry and lower than the whole society.”
For the 13%increase,Cai Weici also expressed"unexpected".He believes that the rapid decline in growth rate reflects the general low expectations of machinery companies for the future.Especially in the machine tool industry,the industry itself has little weight,but it is an industry that armed the machinery industry.
Statistics show that China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’Index(PMI)was 50.1%in February,a decrease of 0.3%from the previous month.Only 0.1 percentage point away from the critical point.
In addition,"the impact of the'National Five Articles'policy cannot be ignored."Cai Weici believes that from the perspective of the entire industry,the prosperity is difficult to overestimate.Regarding the historical reversal of fixed investment,he believes that the pros and cons,gains and losses still need to be observed.
Steady growth in production and sales of machinery industry imports and exports slightly increased by 2.54%
In 2012,with the domestic and international economic downturn,the economic operation of the machinery industry was more severe,and the major economic indicators fell more than expected.The industry realized the growth rate of production and sales remained above 12%,and imports and exports increased slightly by 2.54%.Shows a steady development trend.Among the 120 main product output counted in the monthly report of the China Machinery Industry Federation,there were 77 cumulative year-on-year increases in 2012,accounting for 64.17%of all reported product varieties.Nearly 36%of products achieved double-digit growth.
China Heavy Machinery Industry Association selected the top ten industry news in 2012
Recently,the China Heavy Machinery Industry Association selected the top ten news in the industry in 2012.
1.ISO Crane Technical Committee settled in China
Approved by the International Organization for Standardization Technical Administration and the National Standardization Management Committee,the Secretariat of the International Organization for Standardization and the Crane Technical Committee was moved from the UK to China.Wang Xijun,the chief engineer of the Beijing Crane and Transportation Machinery Design and Research Institute,served as the chairman of ISO/TC96.Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd.is responsible for the work of the secretariat,and Fu Ling,Deputy Chief Engineer of Zoomlion,is the secretary of the secretariat.
Unfavorable factors remain
Saying goodbye to the hard years of 2012,my country's construction machinery industry has come to 2013 with heavy strides.With the macro-economy stabilizing and picking up,urbanization is about to emerge,real estate bottoming out,and railway and rail transit and other infrastructure construction entering a large-scale construction period,the future of the construction machinery industry seems to be very bright.However,"people have no long-term worries,there must be immediate worries",and my country's construction machinery has not really got out of the quagmire,and stay alert at all times to go further.In my opinion,in 2013,the development of my country's construction machinery industry will still be subject to the following major factors.
Uneven heating and cooling in the industry
Taking into account the development characteristics of various industries,Cai Weici said that this year,various industries have different responses.Construction machinery,machine tools,electricians,and heavy machinery are relatively poor,while automobiles are better,but commercial vehicles still decline slightly,and industry investment is still cold.The industry is off to a good start,and we must be cautious about expectations for a warming.
In terms of specific industries,Yao Jie,deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers,said,“The start of the automobile is unexpected.”In the first two months of this year,automobile production and sales were 3.3117 million and 3.3891 million,a year-on-year increase of 14.06%and 14.72.%,negative growth in the same period last year.He predicts that production and sales growth in the first quarter will be 10%,or will exceed 12%.The growth in the first half of the year is expected to reach about 8%.
The relevant person in charge of the Machine Tool Association said that the market demand for machine tools has changed greatly from last year to now.Among them,the low-end market demand dropped sharply,and CNC machine tools grew steadily.From the perspective of market changes,the original low-end products have a large increase and match the market demand.Today,the low-end market has been hit hard.The same is true for exports,indicating that the structure is developing for the better.He said that the exports of tools and abrasives,which were the top two exporters,were products that were“a lot of one dollar and a lot of”,but exports showed a downward trend.It is expected that this year's industry exports will be low and high.From the perspective of overall operation,the industry is still"cold."
In response to the“bottom-to-last”ranking in the industry rankings in the first two months,the relevant person in charge of the construction machinery industry said that the overall feeling was“not so good last year,and not so bad this year.”He said that through research,he found that according to“According to the industry practice of“the mouse does not come out of the hole in January and February,and the promotion in March and April is in full swing”,companies generally have higher expectations for March and April.It is expected that this year will increase slightly over last year,but the fluctuations will not be too great.It is recommended that companies pay attention to the full set of services,especially the construction of the aftermarket.
In contrast,the electrical industry is not optimistic.According to the relevant person in charge of the Electrical Engineering Association,the data released by the National Energy Administration shows that the newly installed capacity of thermal power equipment is expected to be only 36 million kilowatts this year.The China Electricity Council expects to add 40 million kilowatts this year,slightly higher than the National Energy Administration,but still lower than in previous years.This has had an adverse impact on traditional thermal power equipment manufacturers,especially power station boiler manufacturers.The key enterprises in the industry generally report that from the current data,the first quarter delivery is not as good as last year.Although the second quarter delivery will increase,it is not optimistic.
After a new round of reshuffle in the wind power industry,many large companies have been incorporated,and small and medium-sized enterprises have layoffs and even closed down.The National Energy Administration announced that 18 million kilowatts of wind turbines will be added this year,but about 10 million kilowatts of the currently installed units are not connected to the grid for power generation.Due to the digestion of some of these units,the actual new installed capacity of wind power this year is less than in 2011.In addition,the grid-connected wind power in 2012 caused a loss of 20 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity from“wind curtailment”due to insufficient electricity price subsidies,which is also one of the factors affecting the normal development of wind power equipment companies.
Although the photovoltaic industry has successively been sanctioned by the European Union and the United States in 2012,after the country has issued a number of policies to guide its export to domestic demand,the entire industry has still faced great difficulties since last year.Since the beginning of this year,the downturn in the industry has not been fundamentally changed.It is difficult to resolve the overcapacity due to the favorable policies in the near future,and there are already signs that the policy will be terminated.
Of course,there are many bright spots in the development of the industry.In the field of electrical engineering,the localization of ultra-supercritical power station valves is progressing smoothly.At present,domestic valves have gradually entered the field of nuclear power.Since the end of last year,the low-key restart of coastal nuclear power is good news for the nuclear power equipment industry.The National Energy Administration predicts that this year's nuclear power equipment will add 3.24 million kilowatts of installed capacity,which is a larger increase compared to last year's 660,000 kilowatts.
The person in charge said that overall,due to the increasing downward pressure on the domestic and foreign economies,various forms of international trade protectionism continue to rise and other factors,the domestic and foreign market demand is not strong enough.It is expected that the electrical industry in the first quarter of this year will operate at the same level as last year.Not even as good as last year.
The situation facing the electrical industry is also a microcosm of the environment in which the machinery industry is located.From the perspective of the development of the machinery industry,the difficulties faced by enterprises this year include:insufficient demand and hidden worries about accumulated orders;greater risks in the implementation of some projects in foreign markets;increased trade protectionism,and the export situation is not optimistic;high-end markets are facing foreign investment Strong squeeze;severe competition in the same industry,etc.
Cai Weici made a judgment on the economic operation trend of the machinery industry in 2013 and believed that combined with domestic and foreign economic and market factors,it is expected that the industry is expected to continue to achieve double-digit growth in 2013.Among them:production and sales growth is expected to be around 12%;profit growth is expected to be around 8%;export growth is expected to be around 8%.